Here is an article predicting a hard winter for honey bees. I find it interesting that one of the chief scientists for Bayer (the neonictinoid inventor) is coming out in advance and blaming varroa mites for upcoming winter losses. One would tend to think that neonictinoid or other pesticide losses would most likely occur during warm weather and the growing season. So obviously winter losses would be varroa related (unless pesticides also weaken the colony's ability to withstand winter stresses). Usually complex problems have multiple causes. You can draw your own conclusions.