this is a link to a very technical study of overwintering hives. if you can manage to get through it - it really gives you some insight as to how the cluster reacts to temperature changes throughout the winter. The long and the short of the article seems to indicate that strong, populated hives are more likely to survive because they can move for resources (food) and maintain temperature.
http://www.beesource.com/pov/usda/thermology/techbulletin1429.htm
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